According to the International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) reference case, if no significant improvements in policy or technology occur, worldwide energy consumption is going to increase by roughly 50% over within the next 30 years, according to the EIA (Energy Information Administration). Even while petroleum, as well as other liquid fuels, will continue to be the world’s most important energy source in the year 2050, renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, will increase to a level that is nearly equal to that of conventional energy sources.
Increasingly competitive technological costs, along with government policies that encourage the use of renewable energy sources, will lead to an increase in the amount of renewable electricity generated to meet rising electricity demand. This will result in solar and wind energy becoming both the fastest growing and most reliable energy sources in both non-OECD and OECD countries in the future. OECD countries will see a decline in coal and nuclear usage, according to EIA (Energy Information Administration) projections, but this reduction is going to be more than offset by an increase in coal and nuclear usage in non-OECD countries.
According to projections, worldwide consumption of petroleum, as well as other liquids, is going to return to the pre-pandemic levels (in 2019) by 2023, driven completely by an increase in non-OECD energy demand. Due in part to increasing fuel efficiency, it is not expected that OECD liquid fuel consumption will revert to pre-pandemic rates at any point within the next 30 years.
According to the report, the industrial sector is going to increasingly rely on petroleum liquids as a feedstock for the growing chemicals industry. In the OECD nations, liquid fuel consumption in industrial sector is expected to expand at a rate three times faster than liquid fuel consumption in transportation industry in the next decade.
When it comes to home end-use, delivered power consumption will expand the greatest. Electricity is expected to account for over half of all energy consumed in households in non-OECD nations by 2050, up from 33 percent in 2020, according to the EIA. Electricity will account for an even greater proportion of total energy consumption in the non-OECD commercial buildings in 2050, accounting for 64 percent of total energy consumption.
From now until 2050, global natural gas consumption is predicted to rise. This is especially true in developing countries. During the period under consideration, the industrial sector accounts for the majority of the increase in worldwide natural gas consumption until 2050, primarily in non-OECD nations. Household natural gas use is expected to decrease by 2050 across all OECD nations as a result of improvements in energy efficiency. When compared to other end-use sectors, the industrial sector is going to consume the greatest amount of natural gas and coal. Among non-OECD countries, industrial coal consumption will grow at the greatest rate because energy-intensive industries like steel and iron production are growing at a faster rate than in OECD countries.