The commodity supercycle is being uneven, and silver is one of those that seems not to have jumped on the bull car. So far this year, its value has fallen by more than 12%, while gold and platinum also compute 2021 as negative but limiting their falls to one digit, and energy commodities gain more than 50%. But analysts believe this is about to change.
From the commodities consultancy CPM Group they warn that the price of the precious metal could fall slightly in August and September, but they foresee a rise of more than 15% until the end of the year.
In this sense, Jeff Christian told Barron’s that if the ounce was trading at $ 24 it was time to buy, “because we will probably see it at $ 28 soon. And it will go up even more in the coming months.”
Thus, both CPM and UBS warn that there will be a certain downward pressure in the coming weeks, by investors undoing positions in their ETFs and futures given the accumulated results so far this year, but in the medium and long term they see a clear rise.
In this sense, various analysts have been pointing out the increase in demand for metals in coming years due to the shift towards a sustainable economy where precious metals play an important role in the manufacture of elements such as batteries. Silver, for example, is a fundamental element in solar panels.
In addition, we must not lose sight of its value as a safe haven asset, something that has already been demonstrated during the pandemic, going from trading at $ 18 per ounce in early 2020 to $ 24 a year later. Its maximum for the last year exceeds $ 30, so it is a ceiling that would give it a path of up to 30% over its current value . In contrast, gold is only separated by 15% of its maximum of the last 12 months.